Hidden Nook

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Tuesday, May 03, 2005

North Korea Collapse Not Possible?

[Media Source*]

(Hat Tip: North Korea Zone)

DANDONG, CHINA — That North Korea is or will soon be on the verge of collapse is a cherished hope in influential White House circles. But here at the biggest trading point between China and North Korea, few believe that will happen...

The 225 daily trucks cross into Korea from China, making up 70 percent of the North's imports. And the traffic is increasing. North Korea's trade has risen 20 percent a year, to $1.2 billion, and it doubled in the last quarter of 2004.

Despite the laughable perception that North Korea could survive off of "225 daily trucks" this article does have a point to make. China is probably North Korea's largest trading partner, and if economic sanctions were applied against the regime without China's approval, North Korea would probably still thrive economically (although in the short run it would cause a serious recession). Pressure probably needs to be applied to China to deal with it's "tiger friend" if any success is to happen in the region. Of coarse, war is always an option, but that is probably something not desired by anybody with common sense. And it looks like their may be more stumbling blocks to "convincing" North Korea economically.

Neither China nor South Korea see it in their national interest to allow North Korea to collapse at this point, and both are tacitly committed to keeping the reclusive regime of Kim Jong Il stable.

"In the U.S., collapse theory still has a lot of adherents and may be the dominant policy prescription," says Timothy Savage of the International Crisis Group in Seoul. "The problem is, the theory relies on the cooperation of the two countries least inclined to cooperate: China and South Korea."

If neither China or South Korea desire to "contain" their friend then the U.S. should simply put out an advisory to all businesses in the region that their financial interests may be at stake due to a possible war between North Korea and the United States. If we can not convince the Red Dragon and the Tiger cubs that a nuclear (and dangerous) Korea is not in the economic interests of all, then we should push to have our businesses relocate to other countries such as India and Australia.

After all, "money answereth all things.".

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By Darnell Clayton • 9:05 PM • Email Post • •


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